Syrian Conflict
The surprise attack by rebels took
the Assad regime off guard, and the regime forces surrendered without any sort
of resistance, the group behind this well-coordinated and sophisticated attack
was the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) along with other small factions of Syrian
rebels, HTS previously known as (Jabhat al-Nusra) was directly associated with
Al Qaeda later it broke its ties due to ideological differences.
Background of Hayat Tahrir al-sham:
In 2016 the leader of the group
Abu Mohammed al-Julani broke his ties with al Qaeda similarly he dissociated
himself from Jabhat al Nusra afterward he organized a group with the name of
Hayat Tahrir al-sham A year later, A group merged with HTS objectively to change the regime, the HTS
secured a stronghold position due to its severe attacks and suicide bombing,
for a period of last five years the HTS has been controlling the north-western
Syrian province of Idlib, set up Syrian Salvation government, running school,
clinic, etc. Idlib has been a stronghold for the HTS and simultaneously HTS
earned a huge sum of revenue from Idlib by its taxation policies.
The militants of HTS were well
trained, with sufficient weaponry; they sieged much of the weapons when they
attacked the regime's military and paramilitary forces.
Who is Abu Muhammad al-Julani?
42 years old, is Abu Mohammed
al-Julani, born in a Syrian family. The family had fled from Golan Heights
after the war in 1967, there is not much information about the early life
period of Abu Muhammad, but he fought against the US-led coalition forces in
Iraq after the invasion in 2003, detained with some other militants in 2006,
imprisoned for five years in US-run Iraqi prison, later released in 2011
returning to Syria to join Al Qaeda.
Over time, he distanced himself
from al Qaeda and changed the name of the Al Qaeda-affiliated organization to
HTS. The renamed organization fought with little success, and then the group
mainly focused on a limited area rather than being part of the wider game but
remained stubborn to its Islamic extremist ideology.
How the civil war started in Syria?
In December 2010, a vendor who was
assaulted by security personnel in Tunisia immolated himself in protest; this
act of self-immolation provoked widespread anger amongst the public, and
gradually, it rooted across the Middle East and North Africa, leading to the
fall of the regime in Tunisia, Egypt, and Yemen.
Inspired by the Arab Spring,
fifteen boys in the Northwestern city of Daraa, who painted their entire body
in opposition to the regime; as a result
the boys were arrested, and they brutally tortured by regime forces. This
resulted in mass uprisings against the regime. Gradually these demonstrations
spread across the country. Afterwards these demonstrations became much organized.
Their demand were the release of
political prisoners, greater freedom of expression, and an end to corruption.
Assad's regime responded to the
demonstration
brutally, killing hundreds of civilians and
abducting thousands; soon, the demonstration turned more violent; different
factions of the opposition took arms against the cruel regime, and then it
turned into complete chaos and unrest, leading to civil war.
Extremist factions like Al Qaeda,
and ISIS joined the civil war for their interests, regional powers backed
various local forces for their geopolitical goals and interests, and some areas
went beyond the control of Damascus.
When the Assad regime was on the
brink of collapse, Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah came to rescue Assad regime.
Russia with its advanced military
equipment, seized the opportunity to prove its power on a global level,
moreover increasing its influence in the region, provided air support to the
Assad regime by conducting airstrikes on the hideouts of the rebels, dropping
thousands of bombs meanwhile quite contrary to the situation the Iranian troops
and its proxies helped the regime forces on the ground.
Meanwhile, the influence of
Islamic State ISIS grew in different parts of Syria, which became a threatening
sign for the West. As a result Americans joined the fight against the Islamic
State ISIS, and Americans supported the Kurds to control the Islamic State in
Syria by providing military resources and aid.
On the other hand, the opposition
was supported and aided by Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, America, and many other
regional powers to bring regime change, Among all the actors Turkey was the
major backer of the rebels, because the growing power of Kurds worried the
Turkish regime, as it was claimed by Turkish government that the fighters of P.K.K
are trained and supported by the Kurd in the Syrian region.
By the end of 2016, Assad forces
with the support of its allies managed to get control of 60% to 70% of Syrian
provinces, by the time opposition forces were defeated, Syria was divided into
three parts, the majority ruled by Assad-supported by mighty Russian, Iran, and
Hezbollah, Northern Syria governed by the Kurds, Syrian democratic forces SDF,
mainly backed by the American. SDF was the front line to fight against the
Islamic State eventually defeated the ISIS.
The opposition forces were limited
merely to the Idlib provinces, opposition forces backed by Turkey, Saudi,
Qatar, Israel and US. When the civil war broke out, the Turkish government was
at the front, directly backing the rebels to outcaste the Bashar regime. Turkey
even went a step further and formed the rebel group known as the Syrian
National Army (SNA); Turkey feared the
Kurd's influence in Syria.
What caused the sudden offensive
attacks by opposition forces?
Since the defeat of rebels by
Assad forces backed by Russian Iran and its proxies, the situation has become calmer
as compared to the past, even experts and analysts considered this as the Assad
regime's success, moreover the Arab states were welcoming back Assad Arab
League, those states were once the main actor of Assad out casting.
But for the last four years, the
opposition forces mainly Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) were preparing for a large
offense at their stronghold Idlib,
waiting for the right moment for the offensive operation called: Operation
Deter Aggression:
Before this attack, the HTS
leadership regularly met with the local community, especially the minorities,
assuring them of safety in return for getting their support. On the military
front, the opposition enhanced military capabilities, training as a regular
army, making different departments run their system governance, and making
teams dedicated to media for propagating their narrative to the world.
The turning movement of world current issues
came when one main backer of the Assad regime, Russia went in a regional clash
with its neighboring country Ukraine in February 2022, the war lasted long,
against the expectation of Moscow, Russia mainly invested in Ukraine, exhausted
by the long war in Ukraine, had to call some of its personnel and war planes
back to Russia from its Syrian front, leaving Assad forces more vulnerable to
attacks.
On the other hand Hamas attacks on
7 October started a new chapter in the long conflicts of the Middle East, with
Israeli forces going for fledge war against Hamas and its allies, Israeli
forces trying to weaken the Axis of resistance,
Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran and its proxies. Inflicting significant damages to the
main proxies in Lebanon and Syria. Weakened the Iran influence in the region.
Tehran and Moscow were preoccupied with conflicts and left Assad at the mercy
of its already de-moralized force, who did not receive their salaries for the
last several months and were also outnumbered by the opposition as most of the
regime forces were stationed in Damascus for Assad's safety and security.
This was the best opportunity, the
HTS initiated its attacks from northern Syria, and the regime forces showed
some resistance in Aleppo province by holding the rebel forces for three days,
apart from that the regime forces just simply melted away within 11 days, and
the rebels took control of Aleppo then marched toward the Hama city then homes,
by the end of 7 December the rebel was at front of the capital, Damascus
forcing the president fleeing the country, once the president left the country,
rebels took the control city.
Different regional actors and
their interests in Syria:
Russia:
Russian intervention on behalf of
Assad completely changed the look of the Syrian civil war, in return Assad's
government signed a deal with Russia that offered it a free lease of the
Hmeimim air base and the Tartus naval base for 49 years, these bases have been
key for the Russian to maintains its influence in the Middle East and its
surrounding, also uses these bases to connect to North Africa. It's been a key
route for Russia to send its contractor soldiers but with the fall of the Assad
government it seems Russia is on the verge of losing its key strategic points
and its influence in the Middle East, as the newly interim HTS regime declined
a humanitarian aid support from Russia but the tone of Russian diplomats have
changed since the fall of Damascus, it will be interesting to see how the newly
regime engage with Russian as they consider them the main culprit of Syrian
during the civil war.
Iran:
Iran, another key ally of the
former Syrian regime, is also at a losing end, given that Syrian land has been
a stronghold for Iran and its proxies for some decades, Iran has used Syrian
land as a bridge to connect to its proxies, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in
Gaza by sending them weapons, security personnel, and other military equipment
more over the Syrian land has been vital for Iran dominance in the Middle East.
Iran used its al-Quds force and proxies to fight against the rebels during the
peak of the Syrian Civil War which eventually defeated the opposition forces in
2016, since then Tehran's dominancy has become crystal clear in the region, but
with the resurgence of Middle East conflict in October 2023 Israel has bombed
and killed many seniors member of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps(IRGC) and
its proxies has weakened its position in the region, with the fall of Assad of
Iran influence in this region further reduced. The key bridge between Iran and
Hezbollah has been cut off this was admitted by Hezbollah chief Naim Qassim. “Yes,
Hezbollah lost in this phase its military supply line through Syria, but this
loss is merely a detail in the overall resistance.” This does not mean Iran has
completely lost its influence Middle East there still Iraq militias in Iraq,
Houthis in Yemen, Iran may adjust its position in the region to maintain its
stronghold in the region, Tehran would try to establish diplomatic relation
with the new government to safeguard its interest in this part of the world and
curtail the expansion the Zionist regime
Turkey:
Turkey, the main actors supporting
the opposition forces since the beginning of the Syrian civil war to de-throw
the Assad regime even went a step further and established its proxy group known
as the Syrian National Army (SNA) fighting the Assad regime and the Kurds at
the same time. Ankara saw the growing influence of Iran as a threat but the
Turkish main concern is the growing power of Kurds in the northern side of
Syria. Now that Turkish backed regime is in power, Turkey tries to counter the
Kurds or Syrian democratic force (SDF) through its proxy forces SNA Turkey sees
that the YPG-led SDF is the same as the P.K.K an armed group that has been
fighting the Turkish state since 1984, Ankara is more concerns that American,
Israeli government aims to establish a corridor stretching from northern Iraq
through Syria and then to Israel to gain access to the Mediterranean sea, there
growing concern within the Turkey the recent attack of Israel and expansion in
Golan heights might be part of this plan, Ankara might use this justification
to attack the Kurdish control areas.
Kurds:
Kurds living in the northwestern
Syria now face difficult challenges of both HTS and the Turkish backed Syrian
national army, (SNA) during the recent offensive by the rebel specially SNA,
the Syrian democratic force, (SDF) faces huge blow, the oil rich city Deir al Zour
lost to SNA, more over the lost ground in Tal Rifaat and also the SDF drew from
the city of Manbij, previously controlled by the Kurdish forces, now the turkey
may use its proxy forces to attack the symbolic and one of the strategic city
of kobani, keep in mind, the Kurds are backed by the mighty American , Kurds
has been key ally of US during the fights against the Islamic jihadist ISIS in
2014-15, this support of Kurd cause breakdown of relation between two NATO
members US and Turkey, as the Turks sees the Kurd a threat, now turkey has more
access and influence within the interim government of Syria, there is higher
chance the Turkish forces along the SNA will try to neutralize the Kurd , it
will be interesting how the America reacts to the situation where the Kurds are
ally at one side, on the other side American and turkey both are NATO member,
will they confront each other? Or will the Americans betray the Kurds?
Israel:
Israel might be the happier side
for the time being as the Iran and its proxies’ back bone has been broken which
was causing huge hurdle for the Jewish regime, but with fall of Assad there is
huge power vacuum left which might be filled by the extremist groups as there
is no central authority in Syria, which is going to hurt the Tel Aviv in
future, meanwhile the Jewish regime has exploited the vulnerable Syria by
attacking it's all military assets in the name of so called security issues and
expanded its territory by occupying the buffer zone in Golan Heights( buffer
zone was created 1974 by united nation through agreement between Syria and
Israel after six days war between Arab countries and Israel 1967) now the
Israel is further expanding its area by occupying, here we can clearly see the
hypocrisy of the western countries, the attack of Russia on Ukraine is seen as
war crime or attack on the sovereignty of the state but here a full scale
attack on an already war torn country view as security issues in the west.
Israel further uses its Western support to stamp its authority in this region.
America:
Americans always portray themselves as the
lone saviors the humanity but in reality, it is the opposite of their actions,
from the invasion of Iraq to Afghanistan, in the name of the war on terror,
later in Syria in the name of curtailing Islamic extremism, now fully
supporting the Israeli forces in the genocide of civilian in Palestine, in actuality,
it is for the wider game of dominance in this region, in Syrian context
American has supported the opposition forces in paste, particularly the Kurds
to curb the ISIS, American main concern in this was the growing influencing of
Russia, and the large network of Iranian proxies. America also wants to keep
oil-rich regions under her control; there are still about 900 hundred American
troops in northern Syria; on the official level, America has maintained a
neutral stance on Syria's regime change, but deep down, they fully invest in
the region to influence the future course of action.
Conclusion:
The conflict has taken a dramatic
turn with the HTS surprise attack leading to the fall of the Assad regime, this
sudden turn of events has brought many challenges for the regional power and
the future of Syria, Russian influence in this region has significantly reduced
and it is at the risk of losing its strategic military bases in Syria, Iran
position is weakened, with the loss of its supply line to Hezbollah and other
proxies. Now Turkey aims to counter the Kurdish influence and may use its proxy
to attack Kurdish-controlled areas; Israel benefits from the weakened Iranian
influence but faces potential challenges from extremist groups in a power
vacuum. The US, while supporting the Kurds, may face a dilemma between its NATO
ally Turkey and its Kurdish allies.
Overall the future of Syria
remains uncertain, Israel attacked and pushed from the Golan Heights further
into Syria, air striking the military assets, on the northern border Turkish
forces also pushed the Kurds, with these uncertainties along with economic
sanctions on Syria by the Western countries, it will be fascinating to see how
the inexperienced leadership emerge from this situation.
https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-bases-syria-threatened-by-insurgent-advance-say-moscows-war-bloggers-2024-12-07/
https://www.cfr.org/expert-brief/what-assads-fall-means-russia-middle-east
https://www.cfr.org/syrian-civil-war
https://www.cfr.org/expert-brief/syria-after-assad-what-know-about-hts-hezbollah-and-iran
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/future-syria%E2%80%99s-kurds-214119
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/hezbollah-chief-says-group-lost-critical-arms-supply-route-from-iran-with-syrian-ouster-of-assad/ar-AA1vXmnR
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https://ecf.org.il/media_items/272